A contributed City Dental Care analysis
Children's oral health in Scotland: why has improvement plateaued?
Hamza Al Haddad explains why the long improvement in Scottish children's oral health has levelled off since the pandemic, and what practices and policymakers could do to restart it.


In brief
- Scotland's long improvement in children's teeth has levelled off since the pandemic.
- The pandemic interrupted nursery toothbrushing and dental visits, the two Childsmile measures most strongly linked with less decay.
- Five changes could restart it: finish the recovery in schools, treat age six as a prevention window, start in the first year, count fluoride varnish, and look again at water fluoridation.
According to Public Health Scotland's National Dental Inspection Programme, the share of Primary 7 (P7) pupils with no obvious decay experience rose from 52.9% in 2005 to 80.0% in 2019. It has hardly moved since, and stood at 81.5% in 2025. Since the pandemic, PHS says, the long decline in decay 'appears to have plateaued'. P1 is similar: 73.2% in 2024, against 73.5% in 2020.
One measure underneath has moved the wrong way. The share of P7 children with untreated decay rose from 7.9% in 2019 to 10.5% in 2023, and was 10.2% in 2025. Some may be early decay deliberately managed without a filling, but in my view much of it is treatment the pandemic delayed. The children who worry me aren't the ones who come every six months. It's the child we haven't seen for two or three years, who comes back because a back tooth hurts, and by then it needs more than a small filling. My argument is that the pandemic interrupted prevention at the ages when it counts, and that the recovery is not finished.
The children who worry me aren’t the ones who come every six months.
Part 1
Why has improvement plateaued?
A 2020 BMJ Open study of more than 50,000 Scottish P1 children found two Childsmile measures most strongly linked with lower odds of decay: over three years of supervised brushing at nursery (around 40% lower) and six or more dental visits before P1 (around 45% lower). The authors caution that attendance may partly reflect which families attend, but both point the same way.
Both were interrupted. Childsmile's supervised brushing ran in 97.0% of nurseries and 65.9% of primary schools in 2018/19, and in 8.2% and 5.1% in 2020/21. Practices reopened for routine care in the summer of 2020, but between December 2021 and February 2022 children's NHS dental treatment was still running at about 45% of its pre-pandemic level.
Supervised toothbrushing, before and after the pandemic
Share of nurseries and local authority primary schools taking part in Childsmile toothbrushing, Scotland.
2019/20 is not in either source. Drawn by City Dental Care from Childsmile National Headline Data (November 2019 and December 2025).
Different year groups lost different things. The P7 children inspected in 2025 had been through nursery before lockdown; what they missed was routine dental care, and in priority schools fluoride varnish, from the age of six or seven, just as their first permanent molars came through. At our practice in Edinburgh, we see the result in ten- and eleven-year-olds: first permanent molars that were never sealed, with decay starting in the grooves. That is exactly the decay prevention is meant to stop. The five-year-olds inspected in 2024 had their nursery years disrupted. The Scottish Government has said the slowdown is likely to be related to reduced access to nurseries and schools. For the youngest children I think that is right; for older ones, I think lost dental visits matter more. Neither link has yet been tested child by child.
The pandemic is not the whole explanation. Gains in the 2010s were smaller than in the 2000s, although both age groups were still improving up to 2020. At P7, PHS says recent improvement has continued only in the least deprived fifth of areas. P1 is more encouraging: in 2024 only the two most deprived fifths improved, which suggests to me that targeted Childsmile work held up while universal prevention slipped.
Part 2
What needs to change
Finish the recovery
Nursery brushing is back in 95.3% of nurseries, a credit to nursery staff and Childsmile teams, and a Scottish economic evaluation put the nursery programme's expected savings, by year eight, at over 2.5 times its cost. School brushing runs in 58.0% of primary schools, against 65.9% before the pandemic. The evidence for school brushing is thinner, but first permanent molars are newly through in P3 and P4, so BDA Scotland's proposal to extend brushing to those classes in high-need schools deserves a pilot with evaluation built in.
Treat age six as a prevention window
This sits with dental practices, including mine. Only 10.4% of P7 first permanent molars were sealed and sound in 2025 (11.4% in 2023, so not only a pandemic effect), and PHS has said in successive reports that the pattern of decay supports greater use of fissure sealants. SDCEP's 2025 guidance recommends varnish for every child from age two at least twice yearly, and four times a year at increased risk. As first molars erupt, we should check them closely, seal where the risk justifies it, and plan recalls so each child gets the varnish their risk calls for.
Start in the first year
In September 2025, 42.1% of children aged 0-2 were registered with an NHS dentist, against 47.4% in September 2019. We can register a baby from birth, but most families wait until something prompts them. Of 11,203 children referred to Childsmile's dental health support workers in 2024/25, 148 were recorded as referred by a dentist. Childsmile's guidance already asks practices to contact a support worker when a child is not brought more than once, and a family whose dental history is one of pain and emergencies is a referral we can make too.
Count the prevention
Where children get fluoride varnish is changing. NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde says Childsmile's executive team told health boards in August 2025 that, because research suggests nursery varnish is less effective than other methods, no new consents would be taken and varnish would stop being applied in nurseries from August 2026. Children can still have it applied at their dental practice. In my view that is a reasonable reading of the evidence: nursery varnish was not independently linked with less decay in the 2020 cohort study, and a Scottish nursery trial, in children not already targeted for varnish, found only a modest benefit that was not statistically significant. But in 2024/25 nearly 19,000 three- and four-year-olds had varnish at nursery, including almost three in ten of that age group in the most deprived fifth of areas, and where nursery varnish ends, that work falls to practices. Nursery varnish is recorded application by application. In practices, since the November 2023 payment reform, varnish, brushing instruction and diet advice are claimed together under one preventive item, so national data cannot show whether varnish was given. PHS welcomed paying dentists for prevention, but told the Scottish Parliament's health committee in December 2024 that there is little detail on what the item delivers and that it would welcome more. I agree: as varnish moves into practices, we need to be able to count it.
Look again at water fluoridation
Almost every measure above depends on a child being in a nursery, a classroom or a dental chair, and the pandemic showed how quickly those can close. Water fluoridation does not, and in 2021 the UK's four chief medical officers, Scotland's included, said its greatest effect is in children who do not get fluoride through regular brushing or dental care. No public water supply in Scotland is fluoridated. The initiative lies with NHS boards, which must consult the public before asking Scottish Water to fluoridate, and in 2022 the Scottish Government said it would support a board that had local backing. Modern studies show smaller effects than older ones, and the 2024 Cochrane review rated that evidence low certainty, so I would start where BDA Scotland does: fund boards to carry out feasibility studies, as a complement to Childsmile rather than a replacement for it.
Part 3
What to watch
27 October 2026
Next P1 figures, scheduled by Public Health Scotland
2027
P7 inspection of the children who started P1 in August 2020
Childsmile turned 20 this year, and in my view it still works. What the pandemic took was around two years of it, at ages that matter. The next P1 figures, which PHS has scheduled for 27 October 2026, cover the first P1 cohort since the pandemic whose nursery years ran close to normal. If nursery brushing is the main lever, P1 should start improving; if it stays flat, disruption in infancy may be the reason. The P7 cohort inspected in 2027 started P1 in August 2020, and their first molars came through while practices were still below normal capacity. If the pandemic explanation is right, it should show most clearly there; if not, we should look harder for other causes.
Key figures
The figures in more detail
Primary 7 children with no obvious decay experience
Scotland, Detailed Inspection, 2005 to 2025. No programme ran in 2021.
Weighted to represent all P7 children in Scotland. 2025: 81.5% (95% confidence interval 80.9 to 82.1), from 13,129 children inspected.
Younger children
The same P7 children, by deprivation
No obvious decay experience, 2025, by SIMD quintile.
Unweighted: these describe the children actually inspected, so they are not directly comparable with the 81.5% headline. Among P1 children in 2024 the gap ran from 60.1% to 83.6%, and it has narrowed since 2010.
Children do attend
Edinburgh
What it costs in school days
What this means for a parent
The measures with the best evidence ask nothing unusual of a family: brushing every day from the first tooth, and regular visits before anything hurts.
- Register earlyA child can be registered with an NHS dentist from birth, and coming along to a parent's appointment is an easy first visit.
- It costs nothingNHS dental treatment is free for everyone under 26 in Scotland, and examinations are free for everyone at any age.
- Fluoride varnish from twoFrom age two, children should be offered fluoride varnish by their dentist at least twice a year.
- Keep going when nothing is wrongThe attendance effect in the research is about routine visits, not emergencies.
Children at City Dental Care
Our NHS list is open, and a child can be registered with us from birth. NHS dental treatment is free for everyone under 26 in Scotland.
Sources (26)
- Public Health Scotland, National Dental Inspection Programme 2025 (P7), 21 October 2025
- Public Health Scotland, National Dental Inspection Programme 2024 (P1), 29 October 2024
- Public Health Scotland, National Dental Inspection Programme 2023 (P7), 24 October 2023
- Kidd JB and others, BMJ Open 2020;10(11):e038116
- Public Health Scotland, NHS dental data monitoring report, quarter ending 31 March 2026, 26 May 2026
- Goulart M de A and others, Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 2025;79(11):882-888
- British Dental Association Scotland, Behind the Wait, November 2025
- Public Health Scotland, Scottish Atlas of Healthcare Variation, 6 May 2025 (2023 data)
- NHS inform, Receiving NHS dental treatment in Scotland
- McMahon AD and others, Protecting Teeth@3, Caries Research 2020;54(3):274-282
- Childsmile National Headline Data, December 2025
- Childsmile National Headline Data, November 2019
- Public Health Scotland, The impact of COVID-19 on NHS dental services and oral health in Scotland, April 2022
- Scottish Government, Learning from 25 years of preventative interventions in Scotland, 19 June 2025
- Public Health Scotland, Dental registration and participation as at 30 September 2020
- SDCEP, Prevention and Management of Dental Caries in Children, 3rd edition, February 2025
- Childsmile health visiting guidance, October 2025
- NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde, early years oral health resource, last reviewed 30 March 2026
- Public Health Scotland, written evidence to the Health, Social Care and Sport Committee, 2 December 2024
- UK Chief Medical Officers, Statement on water fluoridation, 23 September 2021
- Scottish Water, Fluoridation in Scotland
- Scottish Parliament written answer S6W-06946, 14 March 2022
- Iheozor-Ejiofor Z and others, Water fluoridation for the prevention of dental caries, Cochrane Review 2024
- BDA Scotland, manifesto for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election
- Scottish Parliament motion S6M-20993, Childsmile's 20th anniversary, March 2026
- Public Health Scotland, forthcoming publications
Written by Dr Hamza Al Haddad, Director, City Dental Care, Edinburgh. A contributed City Dental Care analysis. Figures are the latest published at 30 September 2026.
